2026 predictions: 1 that settle on August 31, 2026

1 person put these on the record before the outcome was known. Each one carries the exact words, the original source, and a test that was locked in advance and cannot be changed now.

1 day to go. Nothing here has been decided yet.

Peter WildefordForecaster and author, The Power Law
“Running this, I get a 4% chance that there will be more than 5 cases from people outside those on the Hondius cruise, with a 70% chance of at least one non-passenger case by August, and about a 17% chance of three or more.”
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2days leftSaid May 11, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026

Who is on this page: Peter Wildeford.

Every test here was written down and anchored before anyone knew the answer, so none of it can be quietly adjusted afterwards — check any of it yourself. Know a call that belongs here? Put it on the record.