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Justin Kompf called it:
“The Fed will maintain the interest rate in their September decision”
IT DIDN'T HAPPEN — settled by the test locked when this went on the record.The test was locked 28 days before the outcome was known, and did not change.
MET if The FOMC's official policy statement concluding its September 2026 meeting (scheduled September 15-16, 2026) announces no change to the target range for the federal funds rate relative to the range in effect immediately before that meeting. Any announced hike or cut of the target range counts as FALSE; changes to other tools (IORB technical adjustments, balance-sheet policy, discount rate) do not by themselves count as a change, and dissenting votes do not count if the announced target range is unchanged. on the deadline date, before 2026-09-16 23:59 (America/New_York).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Resolves TRUE if the Federal Open Market Committee, in the official policy statement issued at the conclusion of its September 2026 meeting (scheduled September 15-16, 2026), leaves the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged from the range in effect immediately before that meeting. Resolves FALSE if the statement announces any increase or decrease in the target range. The FOMC's own published statement is the settling document.
Written here by its author
Self-recorded by @justin · Verified identity
Reactions are about the record being worth keeping — never about whether the person was right. They are never counted for or against anyone, and never used to rank anything.
Discussion
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History — append-only
MET if The FOMC's official policy statement concluding its September 2026 meeting (scheduled September 15-16, 2026) announces no change to the target range for the federal funds rate relative to the range in effect immediately before that meeting. Any announced hike or cut of the target range counts as FALSE; changes to other tools (IORB technical adjustments, balance-sheet policy, discount rate) do not by themselves count as a change, and dissenting votes do not count if the announced target range is unchanged. on the deadline date, before 2026-09-16 23:59 (America/New_York). Evaluated over 29 periods from 0 observations plus 1 evidence fact(s).
Proof
Disputes
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