Open Settles on evidencePredictionDeadline Sep 16, 2026
0 days on the record28 to go

Due in 28 days, on 2026-09-16. Settlement rests on public evidence, gathered and checked after the deadline.

Justin Kompf: “The Fed will maintain the interest rate in their September decision

The Fed will maintain the interest rate in their September decision
🔒 The test — locked 2026-08-19, before the outcome was known

MET if The FOMC's official policy statement concluding its September 2026 meeting (scheduled September 15-16, 2026) announces no change to the target range for the federal funds rate relative to the range in effect immediately before that meeting. Any announced hike or cut of the target range counts as FALSE; changes to other tools (IORB technical adjustments, balance-sheet policy, discount rate) do not by themselves count as a change, and dissenting votes do not count if the announced target range is unchanged. on the deadline date, before 2026-09-16 23:59 (America/New_York).

Settled byevidence
Window2026-08-19 2026-09-16
TimezoneAmerica/New_York
Calendarfed
Data vintagefirst_print
Min source tier1
Contract hash0x5802a8b0…72d647
◎ The test — locked before the outcome was known

Resolves TRUE if the Federal Open Market Committee, in the official policy statement issued at the conclusion of its September 2026 meeting (scheduled September 15-16, 2026), leaves the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged from the range in effect immediately before that meeting. Resolves FALSE if the statement announces any increase or decrease in the target range. The FOMC's own published statement is the settling document.

Thonest does not settle this one automatically — there is no supported data source for it. The test is fixed all the same, so anyone can check it and nobody can change what counts.

Written here by its author

Self-recorded by @justin · Verified identity

Justin KompfThonest (self-recorded)Said Aug 19, 2026Captured Aug 19, 2026

Resolution criteria

Resolves TRUE if the Federal Open Market Committee, in the official policy statement issued at the conclusion of its September 2026 meeting (scheduled September 15-16, 2026), leaves the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged from the range in effect immediately before that meeting. Resolves FALSE if the statement announces any increase or decrease in the target range. The FOMC's own published statement is the settling document.

History — append-only

2026-08-19
Recorded · Self-recorded by @justin · identity verified

Proof

Evidence hash0x37442076…398e73
Source snapshot
Record fingerprint0x374420768850e28d1e24a93456603b4b26412f8860adf9e3540df99c33398e73
Proof path
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
  1. 0x2aa79c8a6a5c93d749d71b87ca94126e2eeb6e5c16c8735a72905c3095c5b938
  2. 0x773622ebecc72404b27fb82a7023d9d0aa20d4d6e92e02f75a089a546b1a9c2f
Merkle root0xfbd0e894800b3f7c550cb9c611d16c621a0f0f45ea85f205a695a26fc0607b0c
batch #18 manifest · 4 entries
Registry0x3d74d9e2f0f4c741fc49b34cc119b6db0cef47c0 · entry #17
the contract refuses any batch that doesn’t follow the previous one, and has no function to edit or delete one — including for us
Anchored onchainbase-mainnet · Aug 19, 2026
0x851b7827…a927db on block explorer
Original sourceNone — written here, not quoted from elsewhere
There is nothing external to check this against. What the anchor proves is the time it was written, which is the point of recording a claim before its outcome is known.
Third-party archiveNot applicable
An archive copies a page that already existed somewhere else.
Quote checkRecorded directly on Thonest by @justin, whose control of the account was verified.
Written by@justin (Justin Kompf)
the Thonest account that wrote this — not a claim about who controls it unless the identity level above says so
Text as submitted0xf6ac33943bf67b434f1b5b81aeb9db00925aca806f354b5a293d442cb715bba0
view the raw response · exactly what the author typed, kept verbatim and covered by the evidence hash

✓ The original record is immutable. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — nothing is ever silently edited.

Verify this record yourself

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Disputes

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