Condition not met Settles automaticallyPrediction
1,252 days on the record

Settled: condition not met. The locked test was run against the sources frozen at registration, and the result is permanent.

Balaji Srinivasan: “I will take that bet. You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD. This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The term is 90 days.

I will take that bet. You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD. This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The term is 90 days.

Historical record. This was registered after its outcome was already known, so it does not carry Thonest’s pre-outcome locking guarantee. The statement date rests on the platform’s own timestamp of the original source, and the result is counted separately from pre-outcome track records — after-the-fact submissions reflect what someone chose to submit.

🔒 The test — locked 2026-08-19, before the outcome was known

MET if BTC-USD price is at or above 1,000,000 at any point, before 2023-06-15 23:59 (UTC).

Settled byautomatic
Window2023-03-17 2023-06-15
TimezoneUTC
Data vintagelatest_revision
Min source tier1
Contract hash0x071613b2…d977db

The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.

Quote verified against the source

Balaji SrinivasanX (Twitter)Said Mar 17, 2023Captured Aug 19, 2026

See the original post on X

Balaji publicly accepted a wager on X on March 17, 2023, staking $1M USD against 1 BTC on a 90-day term amid his hyperinflation thesis.

Resolution criteria

Resolves TRUE if the price of Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) trades at or above $1,000,000 at any point between March 17, 2023 and June 15, 2023 (90 days from the statement), inclusive. Otherwise FALSE.

History — append-only

2026-08-19
Recorded · Registered from the original source AFTER the outcome was known — historical, no pre-outcome locking guarantee
2026-08-19
Resolved · Condition not met

MET if BTC-USD price is at or above 1,000,000 at any point, before 2023-06-15 23:59 (UTC). Evaluated over 91 periods from 273 observations across market_price:BTC-USD:price.

Proof

Evidence hash0x1c5f8b3a…e8cc13
Source snapshot0xd15bcbba…dff7e0
Record fingerprint0x1c5f8b3ab8983d38c1e06fa1549534988aac8c305cd814138a8e0e4cbce8cc13
Proof path
3 hashes from this record to the anchored root
  1. 0x29d154842042927776bc1d1cb1271eca99e053c17d53a5b4a98e6f87f9524f83
  2. 0x3ce66b8483cfb6b731787fccd6c1bfa6451de634d82836c4f18d70a556c528a1
  3. 0x191962e77776736dc38607cea5a1529c9a3b061c44efb46357939f74324d9d0e
Merkle root0x76e3da146b1d0cde673f79b21673e82f4b7094abd6d0b70a759159b80cb17c9c
batch #5 manifest · 5 entries
Registry0x3d74d9e2f0f4c741fc49b34cc119b6db0cef47c0 · entry #4
the contract refuses any batch that doesn’t follow the previous one, and has no function to edit or delete one — including for us
Anchored onchainbase-mainnet · Aug 19, 2026
0x2e96d6ea…f181fd on block explorer
Third-party archiveNone
This platform blocks archiving services, so no independent copy exists.
Quote checkThe quote appears verbatim in the response the platform returned.
Posted by@balajis (Balaji)
reported by the platform itself, not by the submitter
Platform capture0xcced4a6cd7868471ab184e4e9f9fbfda0f1eb01f8807dc03d17b553a4c9ec4fb
view the raw response · the platform's own API response, kept verbatim and covered by the evidence hash

✓ The original record is immutable. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — nothing is ever silently edited.

Verify this record yourself

The check runs in your browser and reads the anchored root straight from a public Base node — not from Thonest. How this works.

Disputes

No disputes have been filed. If something here is wrong — a misquote, a wrong date, a misattributed source — say so and it gets answered on the record. How disputes work.

Related

BitcoinUS dollar hyperinflationCoinbase