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Balaji Srinivasan called it:
“I will take that bet. You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD. This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The term is 90 days.”
IT DIDN'T HAPPEN — classified by a retrospective rule added when this historical record was registered.
Historical record — added after the outcome. Thonest verifies the original source and preserves the statement, but this record does not carry the pre-outcome locking guarantee and is excluded from scored track records. The statement date rests on the platform’s own timestamp of the original source, and after-the-fact submissions reflect what someone chose to submit.
This rule was added when this historical record was registered. It was not locked before the outcome and is shown only to explain how the historical result was classified.
MET if BTC-USD price is at or above 1,000,000 at any point, before 2023-06-15 23:59 (UTC).
Settles automatically from the locked data source — no judgment call, no human vote.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen when this historical record was registered — after the outcome was already known — and is shown only to explain the classification.
Resolves TRUE if the price of Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) trades at or above $1,000,000 at any point between March 17, 2023 and June 15, 2023 (90 days from the statement), inclusive. Otherwise FALSE.
Quote verified against the source
History — append-only
MET if BTC-USD price is at or above 1,000,000 at any point, before 2023-06-15 23:59 (UTC). Evaluated over 91 periods from 273 observations across market_price:BTC-USD:price.
Proof
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Related
Added by Thonest from a public source. The person quoted did not submit, approve, or endorse this record; the wording is verified against the source itself.
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Discussion
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Balaji publicly accepted a wager on X on March 17, 2023, staking $1M USD against 1 BTC on a 90-day term amid his hyperinflation thesis.
✓ The anchored proof cannot be rewritten, and the published record is append-only by default. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — corrections are appended, never silently edited in.
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