Condition not met Settles automaticallyPrediction
1,884 days on the record

Settled: condition not met. The locked test was run against the sources frozen at registration, and the result is permanent.

PlanB: “no that is not true. s2f model is a simple linear regression. parameters, stats and bounds are in the article, everyone can replicate and verify. I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year, we can not stay at current levels for the rest of the year.

no that is not true. s2f model is a simple linear regression. parameters, stats and bounds are in the article, everyone can replicate and verify. I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year, we can not stay at current levels for the rest of the year.

Historical record. This was registered after its outcome was already known, so it does not carry Thonest’s pre-outcome locking guarantee. The statement date rests on the platform’s own timestamp of the original source, and the result is counted separately from pre-outcome track records — after-the-fact submissions reflect what someone chose to submit.

🔒 The test — locked 2026-08-19, before the outcome was known

MET if BTC-USD high is at or above 100,000 at any point, before 2021-12-31 23:59 (UTC).

Settled byautomatic
Window2021-06-23 2021-12-31
TimezoneUTC
Data vintagelatest_revision
Min source tier2
Contract hash0xc943c633…f6c2ed

The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.

Quote verified against the source

PlanBX (Twitter)Said Jun 23, 2021Captured Aug 19, 2026

See the original post on X

Posted on X on 23 June 2021 while defending the Stock-to-Flow model against criticism during a Bitcoin price drawdown.

Resolution criteria

Resolved TRUE if the Coinbase BTC-USD price reaches or exceeds 100,000 USD at any point between 23 June 2021 and 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Resolved FALSE if BTC-USD never trades at or above 100,000 USD in that window. Settlement uses Coinbase BTC-USD daily high values.

History — append-only

2026-08-19
Recorded · Registered from the original source AFTER the outcome was known — historical, no pre-outcome locking guarantee
2026-08-19
Resolved · Condition not met

MET if BTC-USD high is at or above 100,000 at any point, before 2021-12-31 23:59 (UTC). Evaluated over 192 periods from 576 observations across market_price:BTC-USD:high.

Proof

Evidence hash0x3439605a…ae6258
Source snapshot
Record fingerprint0x3439605abc50ccc1e985091f102f1ab689165bba04768db11fd87dd384ae6258
Proof path
3 hashes from this record to the anchored root
  1. 0x00aa21941ce6670f1c0bb37dce2c39552625afd34ad80d18fb6c2d65495bbbcd
  2. 0x2d9aeeafced6e4dc33b3e1c57e2b5b9f3350e72cb330910ecc29800e3781c5b6
  3. 0x73ad61ed5be36622bc8ef7be3dd9515735e36599810c5fcbb944816a5484cae7
Merkle root0xcff60d537afd1a93683ccf0a5097dad299d871380128c3dd98f36ed2e80260b3
batch #4 manifest · 5 entries
Registry0x3d74d9e2f0f4c741fc49b34cc119b6db0cef47c0 · entry #3
the contract refuses any batch that doesn’t follow the previous one, and has no function to edit or delete one — including for us
Anchored onchainbase-mainnet · Aug 19, 2026
0x618de768…0cdeb4 on block explorer
Third-party archiveNone
This platform blocks archiving services, so no independent copy exists.
Quote checkThe quote appears verbatim in the response the platform returned.
Posted by@100trillionUSD (PlanB)
reported by the platform itself, not by the submitter
Platform capture0x1d4ab275179037f4ffdb59cd2409e6b2104ff69e21c06938fa4eb81a498220c1
view the raw response · the platform's own API response, kept verbatim and covered by the evidence hash

✓ The original record is immutable. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — nothing is ever silently edited.

Verify this record yourself

The check runs in your browser and reads the anchored root straight from a public Base node — not from Thonest. How this works.

Disputes

No disputes have been filed. If something here is wrong — a misquote, a wrong date, a misattributed source — say so and it gets answered on the record. How disputes work.

Related

BitcoinStock-to-Flow modelCoinbase