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PlanB called it:
“no that is not true. s2f model is a simple linear regression. parameters, stats and bounds are in the article, everyone can replicate and verify. I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year, we can not stay at current levels for the rest of the year.”
IT DIDN'T HAPPEN — classified by a retrospective rule added when this historical record was registered.
Historical record — added after the outcome. Thonest verifies the original source and preserves the statement, but this record does not carry the pre-outcome locking guarantee and is excluded from scored track records. The statement date rests on the platform’s own timestamp of the original source, and after-the-fact submissions reflect what someone chose to submit.
This rule was added when this historical record was registered. It was not locked before the outcome and is shown only to explain how the historical result was classified.
MET if BTC-USD high is at or above 100,000 at any point, before 2021-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles automatically from the locked data source — no judgment call, no human vote.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen when this historical record was registered — after the outcome was already known — and is shown only to explain the classification.
Resolved TRUE if the Coinbase BTC-USD price reaches or exceeds 100,000 USD at any point between 23 June 2021 and 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Resolved FALSE if BTC-USD never trades at or above 100,000 USD in that window. Settlement uses Coinbase BTC-USD daily high values.
Quote verified against the source
History — append-only
MET if BTC-USD high is at or above 100,000 at any point, before 2021-12-31 23:59 (UTC). Evaluated over 192 periods from 576 observations across market_price:BTC-USD:high.
Proof
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Related
Added by Thonest from a public source. The person quoted did not submit, approve, or endorse this record; the wording is verified against the source itself.
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Discussion
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Posted on X on 23 June 2021 while defending the Stock-to-Flow model against criticism during a Bitcoin price drawdown.
✓ The anchored proof cannot be rewritten, and the published record is append-only by default. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — corrections are appended, never silently edited in.
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