A prediction, a commitment and a position are not the same thing
Saying what will happen, promising what you will do, and stating what you believe are three different risks.
October 3, 2026 · figures counted October 4, 2026
The archive holds 116 predictions, 5 commitments and 4 positions. They are stored separately because they fail differently.
The difference that matters
A prediction is about the world: it is wrong if the world does something else, and the person making it controls none of it.
A commitment is about the speaker — a promise about their own conduct, so failing it is a choice rather than a miss. A position is a stance held now: it can be abandoned, but it cannot be wrong about the future, because it is not about the future.
Why conflating them flatters everybody
A track record mixing all three counts a kept promise as a correct forecast, which it is not, and counts a changed mind as an error, which it also is not. Separating them is less satisfying and considerably more honest.
Every claim here is checkable.
The exact words, the source and its date, the test fixed before the outcome, and what happened when it landed.