How to check whether someone actually predicted what they say they did
Five steps, and four of them happen before the outcome is known. Most disputes die at the second one.
August 29, 2026 · figures counted October 4, 2026
Verifying a prediction is five steps, and four of them happen before anyone knows the answer.
The procedure
Find the original — not a quote of a quote, but the post, the clip, the transcript. Date it, because when it was said is half of what makes it a prediction rather than a comment.
Take the exact words; paraphrase is where accuracy goes to die. Write the test — outcome, threshold, deadline, source — before you know the result. Then wait.
What the record stores
Every record here keeps the exact wording, the original source and its date, the criteria fixed in advance, and the evidence any verdict was settled on. Corrections and disputes are appended rather than overwritten, so the first version stays readable.
Of 126 records, 8 have settled so far — 5 met and 3 not. The rest are waiting, which is what verification mostly looks like.
Every claim here is checkable.
The exact words, the source and its date, the test fixed before the outcome, and what happened when it landed.