AGI timeline predictions mostly cannot be settled
The date is the easy half. Nobody agrees what has to happen on it.
October 3, 2026 · figures counted October 4, 2026
There are 4 AGI timeline claims on this record and 2 carry a deadline. Even those are harder to settle than a date suggests.
A year without a threshold is not a test
“AGI by 2030” names a date and nothing else: not what system, measured how, judged by whom. Two people can agree the date arrived and disagree entirely about whether the claim came true.
That is why a record here stores the resolution criteria beside the claim — outcome, threshold, source — and why a claim without them stays open rather than being resolved on somebody's reading.
What a settleable version looks like
The AGI claims that can actually resolve are the ones naming a benchmark and a score, or an exam and a grade. They are narrower than the headline and far less quotable, which is precisely why most people do not make them.
Every claim here is checkable.
The exact words, the source and its date, the test fixed before the outcome, and what happened when it landed.